Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be amazed, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he won’t run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running once again. I think I’m simply skeptical that Biden would surrender without an apparent successor apparent regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even entering the reality that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty meaningless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead slightly most of the time. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anyone besides Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
The majority of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. There was a 9-point decline among Democrats between the two polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, though, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the exact same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be essential to figuring out whether he runs again., but he’s still underwater general.
Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. However, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) appears capable of defeating Trump should the former president certainly run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty smoothly win the election with just a plurality of the main vote. If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive baggage and might not have the ability to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for circumstances, that almost half of Americans who prepared to enact the 2024 Republican primary would choose a candidate besides Trump in a main race.
I’m grateful you brought up that poll, because I thought that was a fascinating way to frame the results, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was first, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up citizens in a direct match. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a warranty Sanders gave her a genuine run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.
I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some want to admit, however after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really think it’ll be really difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.