Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be amazed, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to unexpectedly wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he won’t run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running again. I guess I’m just skeptical that Biden would surrender without an obvious heir evident in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. They likewise picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s prior to even entering into the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are pretty meaningless. It mostly depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden might lead a little usually. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anybody aside from Biden might be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be essential to figuring out whether he runs once again. Not to discuss that up until really just recently Biden also had the most affordable approval score of any president considering that the end of The second world war. It’s slowly inched back up, but he’s still undersea general.
Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. However, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump must the previous president certainly run.
If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive luggage and might not have the ability to win in a general election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for instance, that almost half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would choose a candidate other than Trump in a main race.
I’m happy you brought up that survey, since I believed that was an intriguing way to frame the results, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered citizens in a direct match. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders gave her a real run for her cash.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some wish to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I actually believe it’ll be truly difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.