Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be shocked, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
However if Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to drift the idea he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m just doubtful that Biden would throw in the towel without an apparent heir obvious despite his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the beginning of the month, registered citizens chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even entering the reality that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are pretty worthless. It mainly depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat generally. I do think, though, some Democrats believe anyone aside from Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent seems coming within Biden’s own party, too. There was a 9-point decline amongst Democrats between the two surveys. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, however, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to identifying whether he runs once again. Not to mention that till really just recently Biden also had the most affordable approval score of any president since the end of The second world war. It’s gradually inched back up, however he’s still underwater overall.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in contract that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? Yes! The reality that nobody easily comes to mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to speak about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of defeating Trump must the former president undoubtedly run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive baggage and might not have the ability to win in a general election again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that almost half of Americans who prepared to enact the 2024 Republican primary would select a prospect besides Trump in a primary race.
I’m delighted you brought up that survey, since I thought that was a fascinating way to frame the results, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct match. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a warranty Sanders offered her a real run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some want to confess, but after Tuesday night’s outcomes most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I in fact think it’ll be truly tough for another Republican to cut through his power.