Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be amazed, however, if he decreases to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to drift the idea he will not run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running once again. I think I’m simply doubtful that Biden would toss in the towel without an apparent beneficiary obvious in spite of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m not sure just how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the beginning of the month, signed up citizens picked Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s before even entering into the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are pretty useless. It mainly depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead slightly usually. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anyone besides Biden might be weaker against Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to determining whether he runs once again., but he’s still undersea overall.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in contract that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. However, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears efficient in defeating Trump must the former president indeed run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive baggage and might not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for instance, that practically half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would choose a candidate aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m grateful you brought up that survey, because I thought that was an interesting way to frame the results, as one could likewise argue from that survey that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered citizens in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t an assurance Sanders provided her a genuine run for her money.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some want to admit, but after Tuesday night’s outcomes most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I in fact believe it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.