Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be shocked, however, if he declines to run for reelection. He would be 86 years old by the end of his 2nd term; it’s simply really hard to picture him serving at that age. Since project decisions do not always happen in an organized style, it’ll be intriguing to see for how long Biden waits before he makes a last determination about his 2024 intentions.
If Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to float the concept he won’t run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running again. I guess I’m just skeptical that Biden would surrender without an obvious heir apparent regardless of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the beginning of the month, registered voters picked Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s before even getting into the truth that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty useless. It mostly depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead slightly more often than not. I do believe, though, some Democrats believe anyone other than Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
The majority of the discontent seems coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. There was a 9-point decline amongst Democrats in between the two polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, however, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be essential to identifying whether he runs once again., however he’s still undersea total.
Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? Yes! The fact that no one quickly comes to mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to discuss the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. However, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of beating Trump must the previous president indeed run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump pretty conveniently win the nomination with just a plurality of the main vote. So if you get a variety of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive baggage and might not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that almost half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a candidate besides Trump in a main race.
I’m thankful you brought up that poll, because I thought that was a fascinating way to frame the outcomes, as one might also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered voters in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders provided her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a genuine threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some wish to confess, however after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really think it’ll be actually hard for another Republican to cut through his power.