Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be amazed, however, if he decreases to run for reelection. He would be 86 years old by the end of his 2nd term; it’s just actually difficult to imagine him serving at that age. Since project choices do not always happen in an organized fashion, it’ll be fascinating to see for how long Biden waits before he makes a last decision about his 2024 intents.
But if Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to float the concept he won’t run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running again. I guess I’m just doubtful that Biden would surrender without an obvious beneficiary apparent regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even entering into the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are quite worthless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat most of the time. I do believe, though, some Democrats believe anyone aside from Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be essential to identifying whether he runs once again. Not to point out that up until very recently Biden also had the most affordable approval rating of any president because completion of World War II. It’s gradually inched back up, but he’s still undersea overall.
Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump ought to the former president certainly run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty conveniently win the nomination with only a plurality of the main vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive luggage and might not be able to win in a general election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for circumstances, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would pick a prospect besides Trump in a primary race.
I’m pleased you brought up that survey, since I thought that was an interesting way to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an interesting contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a warranty Sanders gave her a real run for her money.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the main without much trouble. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure. That’s particularly real given that Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis does not.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some would like to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really believe it’ll be actually hard for another Republican to cut through his power.