Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be amazed, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running again. I think I’m just skeptical that Biden would throw in the towel without an apparent successor apparent despite his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m uncertain how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the start of the month, registered citizens chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s prior to even getting into the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are quite useless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead a little usually. I do believe, though, some Democrats think anybody aside from Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to figuring out whether he runs once again., but he’s still undersea overall.
Is it fair to state that we’re all in contract that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) appears capable of defeating Trump must the former president indeed run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump quite easily win the nomination with only a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive luggage and may not have the ability to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for instance, that practically half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would pick a prospect other than Trump in a primary race.
I’m delighted you brought up that survey, since I believed that was an intriguing method to frame the outcomes, as one could likewise argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I pointed out earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct match. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders provided her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, obviously, went on to win the main without much problem. That said, De, Santis is plainly a genuine threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure. That’s specifically real given that Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some would like to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I in fact think it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.