Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be surprised, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to drift the idea he will not run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running once again. I guess I’m just hesitant that Biden would throw in the towel without an obvious successor obvious despite his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even getting into the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are quite worthless. It mostly depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead slightly generally. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anybody aside from Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be important to figuring out whether he runs once again., however he’s still underwater overall.
Is it fair to state that we’re all in contract that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? Yes! The reality that nobody easily comes to mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump should the previous president indeed run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump quite handily win the nomination with just a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive baggage and may not be able to win in a general election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a candidate aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m glad you raised that survey, because I believed that was an intriguing method to frame the results, as one could likewise argue from that survey that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up citizens in a direct matchup. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders gave her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure.
I know we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some wish to confess, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really think it’ll be actually difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.