Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be surprised, though, if he decreases to run for reelection. He would be 86 years of ages by the end of his 2nd term; it’s just really difficult to picture him serving at that age. Because project choices don’t constantly take place in an orderly fashion, it’ll be interesting to see how long Biden waits before he makes a final decision about his 2024 intentions.
But if Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he will not run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running again. I think I’m simply doubtful that Biden would surrender without an apparent heir evident in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s prior to even entering into the fact that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty useless. It mostly depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead somewhat most of the time. I do think, though, some Democrats believe anybody other than Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to determining whether he runs once again. Not to mention that till very recently Biden also had the most affordable approval rating of any president considering that the end of World War II. It’s gradually inched back up, but he’s still undersea general.
Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in arrangement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of defeating Trump should the previous president indeed run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive luggage and might not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would pick a candidate other than Trump in a main race.
I’m glad you brought up that poll, because I thought that was a fascinating method to frame the results, as one might also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct matchup. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an interesting contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t an assurance Sanders provided her a real run for her money.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, naturally, went on to win the main without much problem. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect. That’s especially true given that Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump might be weaker than some would like to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really think it’ll be really tough for another Republican to cut through his power.