Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I wouldn’t be shocked, however, if he decreases to run for reelection.
However if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to float the idea he won’t run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I guess I’m just doubtful that Biden would throw in the towel without an obvious beneficiary apparent regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s prior to even entering the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are pretty worthless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead a little more typically than not. I do believe, though, some Democrats think anybody aside from Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to determining whether he runs again., however he’s still underwater general.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, naturally, he doesn’t run? Yes! The fact that no one quickly comes to mind informs me yes. Yes. OK, time to speak about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of beating Trump should the previous president indeed run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much luggage and might not have the ability to win in a basic election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for circumstances, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would pick a candidate other than Trump in a primary race.
I’m delighted you brought up that survey, because I believed that was a fascinating way to frame the results, as one might likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a warranty Sanders gave her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is plainly a genuine risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.
I understand we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some would like to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I in fact think it’ll be truly hard for another Republican to cut through his power.