Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if he declines to run for reelection. He would be 86 years old by the end of his second term; it’s just really difficult to envision him serving at that age. Because project decisions do not constantly take place in an organized style, it’ll be interesting to see how long Biden waits before he makes a last decision about his 2024 intentions.
However if Trump were to unexpectedly wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I guess I’m simply doubtful that Biden would toss in the towel without an apparent heir apparent in spite of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m not exactly sure how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the beginning of the month, registered citizens chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s before even entering the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are pretty worthless. It mainly depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead slightly most of the time. I do think, though, some Democrats think anybody aside from Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to determining whether he runs once again., however he’s still underwater general.
Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, naturally, he does not run? Yes! The reality that no one quickly comes to mind informs me yes. Yes. OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of defeating Trump must the former president undoubtedly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty easily win the nomination with only a plurality of the main vote. So if you get a number of candidates dividing the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much baggage and may not be able to win in a general election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that practically half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would choose a candidate besides Trump in a main race.
I’m pleased you raised that survey, due to the fact that I thought that was an interesting way to frame the results, as one could likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct matchup. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an intriguing comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t a warranty Sanders provided her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the primary without much problem. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure. That’s particularly true given that Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I know we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump might be weaker than some want to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I in fact think it’ll be truly difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.